{"id":85012,"date":"2026-02-06T15:35:54","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T13:35:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gulftech-news.com\/en\/?p=85012"},"modified":"2026-02-06T15:35:55","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T13:35:55","slug":"land-prices-set-to-fall-or-off-plan-prices-to-rise-as-2026-becomes-pivotal-year-for-dubai-real-estate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gulftech-news.com\/en\/2026\/02\/06\/land-prices-set-to-fall-or-off-plan-prices-to-rise-as-2026-becomes-pivotal-year-for-dubai-real-estate\/","title":{"rendered":"LAND PRICES SET TO FALL OR OFF-PLAN PRICES TO RISE AS 2026 BECOMES PIVOTAL YEAR FOR DUBAI REAL ESTATE"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Firas Al Msaddi forecasts fewer new launches as handovers rise and pressure builds on developer economics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dubai, Gulf Tech News<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Land prices will need to adjust or off-plan prices will rise as 2026 shapes up to be a decisive year for Dubai\u2019s real estate market, according to one of the city\u2019s leading property experts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of <a href=\"https:\/\/famproperties.com\/\">f\u00e4m Properties<\/a>, expects a clear reduction in new project launches this year, alongside a rise in completed homes entering the market, as developers face growing pressure on profitability and cash flow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cLand prices in Dubai are at historic highs, and developer profitability depends far more on how quickly units sell than on headline margins,\u201d said Al Msaddi. \u201cSales velocity is becoming the key constraint.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While buyer protections remain strong, Al Msaddi noted that they do not insulate developers from financial pressure. \u201cEscrow accounts protect buyers, but they do not guarantee developer returns,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhen sales slow, cash flows tighten, returns get squeezed, and developers naturally become more selective about launching new projects.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This sets up what he describes as the central question facing the market in 2026 &#8211; whether land prices adjust to restore commercial viability at current off-plan pricing levels, or off-plan prices rise further to justify today\u2019s land values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere are two sustainable outcomes,\u201d he said. \u201cIf land prices adjust, launch feasibility improves, end prices stabilise and transaction volumes return gradually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf land prices remain elevated, off-plan prices must rise, product quality and differentiation become critical, and only the strongest locations and developers will succeed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What is unlikely, he added, is a prolonged period where land prices remain high, sale prices stay flat, and volumes remain elevated, as markets do not sustain that kind of imbalance for long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dubai has historically absorbed around 35,000 ready homes per year in balanced market conditions. In 2026, however, Al Msaddi expects handovers to rise to between 40,000 and 50,000 units as projects already well advanced in construction reach completion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis doesn\u2019t point to a price correction,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat it means is slower selling times, flatter prices, and tighter margins. The impact is felt by developers first, not end users.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, Al Msaddi expects a material reduction in new project launches in 2026 compared to 2025, not because demand has disappeared, but because launching projects has become harder to justify financially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To date, launches are 47% down on the same period last year, and while it\u2019s too early to assess the longer-term effect this year, he sees an inevitable annual drop in unveilings, resulting in less supply, while demand remains healthy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dubai currently has close to one million freehold ready homes, most of which are occupied and trading within a stable market, and there is no sign of persistent vacancy pressure or widespread forced selling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With no structural problem in the ready-home segment, Al Msaddi sees the real pressure lying in the fact that roughly 500,000 homes are under construction, the largest pipeline Dubai has ever carried at one time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cMost of this supply is already sold,\u201d he said. \u201cThe key issue is how and when investors sell and move their money out.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Firas Al Msaddi forecasts fewer new launches as handovers rise and pressure builds on developer economics Dubai, Gulf Tech News Land prices will need to adjust or off-plan prices will rise as 2026 shapes up to be a decisive year for Dubai\u2019s real estate market, according to one of the city\u2019s leading property experts. Firas &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85013,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[3253,4788],"class_list":["post-85012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-uncategorized","tag-fam-properties","tag-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>land-prices-set-to-fall-or-off-plan-prices-to-rise-as-2026-becomes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Land prices will need to adjust or off-plan prices will rise as 2026 shapes up to be a decisive year for Dubai\u2019s real estate market, according\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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