Turning Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Oversupply into Opportunity: Why Africa’s Gas Future Depends on Infrastructure
As new LNG capacity reshapes global gas markets, Africa faces a pivotal choice: export more, or invest strategically to power domestic growth
Global LNG supply is set to surge from 2027, driven by new projects and expanded production in the U.S. and Qatar. Bloomberg’s Global LNG Market Outlook 2030 forecasts global supply reaching 594 million tons by 2030 – a 42% increase from 2024 – with a projected 15-million-ton oversupply in international markets.
While geopolitical risks and potential project delays could shift this balance, the prospect of sustained LNG surplus poses a critical question for Africa: how can the continent strengthen domestic gas value chains to shield itself from global market volatility?
Rising African Demand Constrained by Infrastructure
Africa’s natural gas production is rising, with several new LNG projects coming online across the continent. North Africa currently produces two-thirds of the continent’s gas, but the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) State of African Energy 2026 Outlook projects this share falling to 40% by 2035 as sub-Saharan output accelerates. By 2050, sub-Saharan LNG supply could quadruple, while African gas demand is expected to grow 60%, from 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2020 to 90 bcm.
Despite this growing demand, most gas continues to be exported. The primary bottleneck is infrastructure: limited pipeline networks, underdeveloped transmission systems and insufficient processing and storage prevent gas from reaching domestic markets. As a result, LNG exports remain the most viable monetization route, backed by international offtake contracts and financing structures.
Financing constraints further exacerbate the challenge, as domestic infrastructure projects require patient capital, government support and credit enhancements, which are often easier to secure for export-focused LNG developments. Addressing this imbalance will demand an infrastructure-led strategy that aligns production with domestic pipelines, power generation and regional interconnections.
New Projects Signal Momentum
Recent developments suggest positive momentum toward a more integrated African gas economy. In the LNG sector, countries are constructing terminals to support domestic and regional access, including projects at Richards Bay in South Africa and the Port of Nador in Morocco. Earlier this month, Ethiopia signed a landmark agreement to advance the Gas-by-Rail Economic Corridor Initiative, a 75,000-km freight railway system designed to carry LNG to more than 40 sub-Saharan nations, providing direct pathways to high-demand markets.
Cross-border and power generation infrastructure is also expanding. Several major pipeline projects are underway, including the $25 billion Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline traversing 13 West African states, the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline connecting Nigeria to Algeria, and the $1.5 billion Mozambique-Zambia pipeline announced in 2025.
Senegal is developing a multi-phase gas network linking offshore production to power plants, industrial zones and urban areas, while Ghana plans five multi-purpose petrochemical plants, each producing 90,000 barrels per day of chemicals such as fertilizers and lubricants to support industrial and agricultural sectors.
A continental push toward gas-to-power is increasingly evident, supported by policy reform and efforts to expand electricity access. The AEC outlook projects natural gas supplying 45% of Africa’s power by 2050. Countries including Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Senegal, Ghana and Mozambique have integrated gas-to-power goals into national strategies, aiming to translate rising gas production into reliable electricity, cleaner cooking solutions, and broad-based economic growth.
“Export projects alone will not secure Africa’s energy future. Strategic investment in gas infrastructure is what will determine whether rising production translates into electricity access, industrial capacity, and economic resilience,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, AEC.
With domestic gas demand rising, infrastructure projects underway and export markets becoming increasingly competitive, African Energy Week 2026 offers a strategic forum to reposition gas not merely as an export commodity, but as a foundation for long-term energy security, industrial development and inclusive growth across the continent.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.
