By Mohanad Yakout, Senior Markets Analyst, Scope Markets
The reported U.S government move to green-light the first exports of cutting-edge AI chips to Humain — a Saudi, state-backed AI company — marks a decisive inflection in Washington-Riyadh cooperation. While geopolitical headlines suggest a transactional deal, the real implications run far deeper: this is a strategic lever in Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation.
By easing export restrictions first tightened in 2023, the U.S is implicitly endorsing Saudi Arabia’s long-term bid to build sovereign compute capacity.
This hard-infrastructure investment could prove catalytic for Saudi productivity, with generative AI estimated by Oliver Wyman to contribute SAR 60–90 billion to the Kingdom’s GDP by 2030. It also aligns with PwC projections that AI could contribute more than US$135 billion to Saudi GDP by 2030.
Importantly, Saudi Arabia faces a structural workforce challenge: a relatively small domestic labor pool and heavy reliance on expatriates. AI infrastructure powered by advanced U.S chips offers a pragmatic solution.
Rather than solely scaling headcount, Humain’s compute capacity can drive automation, upskilling, and productivity gains across sectors. Generative AI, for instance, could help bridge labor shortfalls in healthcare, education, and government services by augmenting human workflows.
This approach dovetails with Vision 2030’s core goal: economic diversification. By localizing AI capacity, Saudi Arabia can accelerate its shift to a knowledge-based economy, reduce dependence on oil, and foster exportable high-tech services. Moreover, tailoring AI around national priorities enhances resilience and sovereignty which are key pillars of the Kingdom’s long-term strategy.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, the compute deal could boost national GDP growth in both near and medium term.
Analysts have warned of a potential short-term “oversupply” risk, as Humain’s 18,000-chip deployment may outpace immediate domestic demand. But I see that very excess can become a source of strength: spare capacity could position Saudi Arabia to export compute services to emerging markets, creating a new digital export economy.
On the capital markets front, deeper AI infrastructure could reinforce investor confidence in the Saudi equity market TASI. As AI becomes a locally anchored growth engine, companies across sectors might benefit, from tech startups to energy firms adopting AI-driven optimization.
The structural commitment to AI could become a new narrative for the Kingdom’s public markets, supporting valuation re-ratings across Vision 2030-aligned sectors.
In sum, the U.S approval is not merely a transactional tech export decision, it is a signal that Saudi Arabia’s AI roadmap is entering a phase of serious build-out.
If managed wisely, the compute capacity unlocked by these chips could not only offset labor constraints, but also contribute meaningfully to GDP, align with Vision 2030 aspirations, and reinforce the fundamentals underpinning TASI’s long-term growth.
